Analysis Tools
Interactive tools for understanding risks and scenarios — without numerical forecasts.
Risk Indicator
Qualitative assessment of the current risk environment across various categories.
Low
Stable conditions, limited volatility
Moderate
Mixed signals, increased uncertainty
Elevated
Tensions present, potential disruptions
Current Assessment by Category
Scenario Map
Visualization of potential trajectories for markets without numerical axes.
Upside Scenario
Probability: Low to Medium
Strong growth with declining inflation and productivity improvements. Central banks ease earlier than expected.
Impact: Positive for equities, moderate for bonds
Base Scenario
Probability: High
Moderate slowdown with gradual stabilization. Central banks remain cautious. Divergence across regions.
Impact: Mixed, focus on selectivity
Downside Scenario
Probability: Low
Sharp recession with financial stress. Inflation resurgence or credit crisis. Geopolitical escalation.
Impact: Negative for most categories
Key Factors Affecting Trajectory
- Inflation path and policy responses
- Financial stability and credit conditions
- Geopolitical developments and trade
- Productivity and structural reforms
- Fiscal sustainability
Search Engine
Search for analysis, opinions, and topics in our content.