Expert Opinions

Independent analysis with scenarios, probabilities, and critical questions — without numerical targets.

Macroeconomics

Recovery or Stagnation? The 2025 Dilemma

Thesis Summary: The global economy is at a critical juncture. The transition from high inflation to a lower-growth environment presents both risks and opportunities.

Scenarios

  • Base (Likely): Moderate slowdown with gradual stabilization
  • Upside (Less likely): Strong recovery with productivity improvements
  • Downside (Unlikely): Sharp recession with financial stress
Full Analysis
Policy

Central Banks: The New Era of Caution

Thesis Summary: Central banks are shifting their approach — from aggressive tightening to cautious monitoring. The balance between growth and price stability becomes more delicate.

Scenarios

  • Base (High probability): Pause and watch with readiness
  • Upside (Medium probability): Premature easing
  • Downside (Low probability): Inflation resurgence and new tightening
Full Analysis
Markets

Equities: Valuation Versus Reality

Thesis Summary: Equity markets reflect optimism that may not fully align with fundamentals. Dispersion of returns across sectors is increasing.

Scenarios

  • Base (Likely): Correction and sector rotation
  • Upside (Medium probability): Continued rally with broadening
  • Downside (Low probability): Sharp correction due to earnings
Full Analysis
Digital

Digital Assets: From Speculation to Adoption

Thesis Summary: Digital assets are entering a new phase, emphasizing practical utility and regulatory clarity over speculation.

Scenarios

  • Base (Medium probability): Gradual institutional adoption
  • Upside (Low probability): Rapid integration into traditional systems
  • Downside (Low probability): Regulatory constraints limit growth
Full Analysis
Markets

Bonds: The Return of Income

Thesis Summary: After a decade of historically low yields, bonds are reclaiming their role as income generators. Portfolio rebalancing continues.

Scenarios

  • Base (High probability): Stabilization at higher levels
  • Upside (Medium probability): Gradual yield decline
  • Downside (Low probability): Pressure from fiscal deficits
Full Analysis
Macroeconomics

Trade and Geopolitics: New Balances

Thesis Summary: Trade relations are being redefined under geopolitical pressures. Globalization gives way to regionalization and "friend-shoring".

Scenarios

  • Base (Likely): Gradual restructuring of supply chains
  • Upside (Unlikely): De-escalation of tensions and new agreements
  • Downside (Medium probability): Escalation and trade fragmentation
Full Analysis