In-depth exploration of macroeconomic trends, risk scenarios, and structural shifts — without numerical forecasts.
Expectations for global growth show increased dispersion. Some economies maintain steady momentum, while others face structural challenges that slow progress.
Key Factors:
Public debt levels remain historically high in many advanced economies. Fiscal constraints limit the capacity for countercyclical intervention.
Scenarios:
Central banks face the challenge of balancing inflation and growth. The interest rate environment remains fluid, with different paths depending on the region.
Base scenario: Gradual normalization with cautious approach.
Probability: High
Base scenario: Prolonged period of restrictive policy.
Probability: Medium to high
Base scenario: Differentiated approach by economy.
Probability: Very high
The transition to higher interest rates has revealed vulnerabilities in certain segments of the financial system. Monitoring credit conditions and liquidity is critical.
Areas of Focus: High-yield corporate debt, commercial real estate, emerging markets with FX risk.
Geopolitical tensions continue to affect trade relations and supply chains. The potential for additional disruptions remains elevated.
Impact: Increased volatility in energy and commodity markets, reallocation of production capacity.
Valuation narratives are shifting as investors reassess earnings expectations in a higher interest rate environment. Rotation between defensive and cyclical sectors reflects uncertainty about the economy's path.
Capital flows are influenced by interest rate differentials, geopolitical factors, and yield-seeking behavior. Currency positioning reflects expectations for relative economic performance and policy choices.
The regulatory landscape for digital assets continues to evolve globally. Differences between jurisdictions create opportunities and challenges.
Trend: Increased clarity in mature markets, divergence in approaches internationally.
Institutional participation in digital assets is gradually increasing, with attention to risk management and regulatory compliance.
Factors: Custody infrastructure, tax clarity, market maturity.